Watchword 2011

In January 2010 I declared :

A Life Philosophy in 8 words.

Be Present. Go Slow.
Observe. Learn.
Adapt. Harmonize.

'Communion with Chaos' - It's All About Balance

Fundamentals Overriding Technicals

The fundamental (political included) is overriding the technical on a regular basis. In other word, one sets up a high probability technical options /futures trade to mature into profit over typically (in my case) 1 mt. only to have an 'event' ruin it. Example : The euro fell 210 pips ( a historical 1 mt range 1.3500 to 1.3290) in past 36 hrs on rumours (now confirmed) that Portugal's credit rating is downgraded...joining Greece on agenda of major Euro meeting this morning.(Cost to available cash = 16.5K)

If that wasn't enough acid in my stomach, I get the following article this morning upon awaking @ 5a.m. (http://bit.ly/b2qUUu)...it basically says there's a move afoot to curb gold futures trading (I don't have the time to get into what I believe may be the real reason for this but I do believe this is a larger story...re whether there's actually sufficient physical gold in warehouses in USA under Comex care to honour all longs if they request physical delivery...as I intend to do in 30 days on a silver contract...still looking at details).

They think it's trader speculation driving gold up as opposed to the printing press in Washington... lights are on but nobody's home!

http://bit.ly/b2qUUu

Calendar Spreads to Socialist-Libertarian : An Email Thread

Date: Tue, 23 Mar 2010 09:41:10 -0500

Anonymous Libertarian writes:

I got stopped out twice :( ... 5 years since I made a trade, I finally make a couple of trades and get wacked on both of them :(

I respond:

What are you trading?

Anonymous Libertarian responds:

Short Calls on the DIA etf (Dow Jones).

I respond:

I did a few s&p options beginning of yr...my method? - sold wkly contract short and bough big mtly contract further out...so..my short had only 1 wk to run and my long had 45-60 days....in other words, a calendar spread...gives u more time to be right...made a little but the volatility discomfort wasn't worth the $ so i've stayed w/ euro/gold futures/options.

Anonymous Libertarian responds:

I've tried loads of spreads. The problem with spreads is commission. I probably don't have as much experience as you, neither the kitty, but when you have a small pot commission  is a killer.
I am basically at the point where I am seriously considering going into a pure physical play. Mostly from what I perceive as being kicked around by the stock market. It seems to be
very different than when I used to trade it before. You can't get decent premiums that relate to the amount of actual volatility. In other words, the banks are screwing everyone.

Anonymous Libertarian again:

The advantage of a pure physical play is that if they want to scalp money from me they'll have to get past a fully automatic AR-15 with exploding hollow-points.
Changing laws won't work for them.

Anonymous Libertarian again:

You probably think I'm crazy. But more and more I am thinking now is a time to bunker down than speculate.
I have given speculation several chances and every time I get burned.

Eventually you stop doing that and start to make alternate arrangements. I feel like a whack job for taking
this kind of a position but I can't seem to stop losing cash.

Could I be in a slump? What do you think..... am I overreacting? Making the right choice... ? comments / feedback. I am asking you cause you're one of the only traders I know who is still active in these markets.

Whats ur read man.

I respond:

Went for a walk...that helps for perspective ;-)
I don't think you are so far off base.
I do believe you have an inalienable right to defend self & property.
However, I also believe that if we need to pick up arms & use them to
defend our assets then we are probably toast anyways at that point...no
reason not to go down swinging of course...it's just that I'd prefer to work towards
a peaceful resolution of our economic/social/political/spiritual mess as opposed to
an adversarial one...our thoughts/energy create our reality...I believe that the Internet
empowers us...disempowers the nation state...gold empowers us...disempowers the
state, the banks, the mega corps, the ruling oligarchy, and so forth.
The future is ours...the people...increasingly, I see the solution as a socialist-libertarian
one as opposed to solely libertarian...difference being no role (or minimum) for state
and that in our personal sovereignty we see how acting collectively (i.e. a voluntary gold backed currency taking root in the community, decentralized, P2P, beyond gov't ability
to regulate,etc.) synergistically assists all of us.
Sean

Anonymous Libertarian responds:

Refreshing thoughts.
Yes, I agree with you in principal that we're basically toast if we need to defend ourselves because the state has gone too far and has gained too much strength.
Luckily however I think human nature will ultimately prevent the state from ever acquiring any real power. But it can dish out an awful lot of hurt before we get to that state.
Thanks for your thoughts. I will consider my options carefully from here. Doubling my size is a possibility, but I can’t help but remember your comments:

What are the odds of winning red if you've got black 99 times in a row, answer.. Zero.

Nicaragua - Bolivarian Utopia ?

Drove yesterday from Playa Coco to Pinas Blanca - the Costa Rica border town which is the frontier to Nicaragua. Found local private parking space for vehicle as rentals are not permitted entry to Nicaragua.(2USD per day for parking) Had a local guide meet me (referred by friend) on other side and he drove us to Granada ( 60USD - many opt for public bus for few dollars but w/ 3 young children I elected private solution to allow flexibility and to avoid transfers in Rivas w/ typical 1 hr wait).

Quick observation is that Nicaland has a distinctly different vibe then Costa Rica. Not as touristy and hence not as commercial. Even in tourist area simple pleasures like a meal and morning cafe are 1/2 price. The Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas is working well for Nicaragua...or , is it Nicaragua working well for ALBA...perhaps just simply symbiotic. So far, only fond comments directed Ortega's way...no evidence of wide spread discontent over ostensible undemocratic recent practises as portrayed in mainstream Western media.(Caveat: still less then 24hrs here)

Paddy's Day Pictorial from Costa Rica

(download)

Click here to download:

Post-Paddys_Day_Pictorial_from.zip (420 KB)

1440 Minutes + Big Rocks + First Follower Dance Party

1440 Minutes

Each day we are blessed with a mere 1440 minutes of life.

Big Rocks

Stephen Covey popularized the ‘Big Rocks’ metaphor within the personal productivity arena. Here’s a succinct summary, for those unfamiliar, by an anonymous writer:

"An expert in time management was speaking to a group of business students and, to drive home a point, used an illustration those students will never forget. As he stood in front of the group of high-powered overachievers he said, "Okay, time for a quiz" and he pulled out a one-gallon, mason jar and set it on the table in front of him. He also produced about a dozen fist-sized rocks and carefully placed them, one at a time, into the jar.

When the jar was filled to the top and no more rocks would fit inside, he asked, "Is this jar full?"

Everyone in the class yelled, "Yes."

The time management expert replied, "Really?"

He reached under the table and pulled out a bucket of gravel. He dumped some gravel in and shook the jar causing pieces of gravel to work themselves down into the spaces between the big rocks. He then asked the group once more, "Is the jar full?"

By this time the class was on to him. "Probably not," one of them answered.

"Good!" he replied. He reached under the table and brought out a bucket of sand. He started dumping the sand in the jar and it went into all of the spaces left between the rocks and the gravel. Once more he asked the question, "Is this jar full?"

"No!" the class shouted. Once again he said, "Good." Then he grabbed a pitcher of water and began to pour it in until the jar was filled to the brim. Then he looked at the class and asked, "What is the point of this illustration?"

One eager beaver raised his hand and said, "The point is, no matter how full your schedule is, if you try really hard you can always fit some more things in it!"

"No," the speaker replied, that's not the point. The truth this illustration teaches us is: If you don't put the big rocks in first, you'll never get them in at all. "

My personal ‘Big Rocks’ are:

Sleep – 420 Minutes

Nutrition – 195 Minutes

Fitness – 120 Minutes

Trading – 180 Minutes

Consciousness Calibration – 60 Minutes

Children – 120 Minutes

I’m about to determine whether my ‘bucket’ has room for yet another ‘Big Rock’:

Dancing Guy Project – 30 Minutes

First Follower Dance Party

Lykle de Vries @  http://www.lykledevries.nl/ earlier today posted a succinct and cleanly informative summary of the Dancing Guy phenomena taking root in the blogosphere . Here’s a partial excerpt:

Derek Sivers blogged about the Guy Starts Dance Party video six months earlier, and after clever comments on that post, was inspired to turn it into an inspiring TED Talk about Leadership.

It is not about the guy dancing alone, he’s just someone with a silly idea. It is about the first person to join the dance next. By doing so, the silly initiative turns into something that apparently is not just a party in one head. Someone said to Derek he should write a book about that, and he then handed it over to all of us.

My friend Andrew Dubber picked up on Derek’s thoughts and gave it a bit of a twist by announcing that he would release 30 ideas to the world, free for all of us to consider and (if we liked any of them) execute.

Another Andrew then pledged to help organize whoever wanted to take part in all of this, under the banner of Project Idealism. And I joined.

If you like the thinking behind all of these, please consider joining the initiative and help turn a great idea into concrete action!

Siver’s Inspirational Dancer vs. Liberia’s Inebriated Dancer

Last Friday, the 3 young unschoolers who, on good days, call me ‘Dad’, let me tag along with them to the Liberia rodeo here in Guanacaste, Costa Rica, Centro America.

As the crowd suffered a 30 minute delay in the sweltering heat, a severely drunk celebrant took to the bull ring and shook it to the pulsating Latin vibe. The crowd was not so inspired. The difference in reaction may be trite at one level but it’s instructive to explore in some detail. I will do so in my next post.

A Physical Gold Squeeze Looks Like This

Vietnam today...America tomorrow?
 
Following courtesy of VietNamNet :

The world’s price at 11.40 am of February 26 was 1,110 dollar per ounce, which means that the domestic price should have been 25.85 million dong per tael. Meanwhile, the domestic gold price quoted by SJC at the same time was 26.43 million dong per tael, or 580,000 dong per tael higher than the world’s price.

Meanwhile, according to Phu Nhuan Jewellery Company (PNJ), the domestic price should be higher by 80,000-100,000 dong per tael only, and that the 580,000 dong per tael gap is unreasonable.

Gold companies well understand that once the domestic price is much higher than the world’s price, this is the right time for them to import gold to make profit. However, the problem is that many companies have not been allowed to.

“We cannot import gold and we cannot make gold transactions on accounts. Therefore, we have to purchase gold on the domestic market,” said a representative from PNJ. “We now have to purchase gold at the prices set by SJC and we resell the gold at a slightly higher price to make a profit,” he added.

The representative said that if the central bank wants to stabilize the market, it should allow more than one company to import gold.

“If we are allowed to import gold, we will be able to take the initiative in our trading and feel safe to sell gold at the prices close to the world prices,” he said.

 
 
http://english.vietnamnet.vn/biz/201002/Gold-companies-impatient-with-import-blocks-896179/ 

Hola Costa Rica

Arrived in tandem with my family in our home for the next 3 months @ 10 pm

Saturday,Feb.6th. We left our Toronto home @ 5:45 am & stopped in Miami for 5 hrs. Despite their exhaustion Sunday morning,Cian,Liam & Lorraine were up with the sun @ 6 am delighted & excited by the orchestra of wildlife sounds enveloping our perch overlooking the Pacific.

That familiar heighten energy has returned to my body.Prolonged periods @ home bring on an unfortunate static energy whereas travel engenders a dynamic energy flow. Is it entirely the 'travel' factor ? The sun doesn't hurt :-)